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Renters Threaten US Real Estate Market, 20 Million Americans Face Eviction

08/07/2020 by Idelto Editor

The aftermath of the coronavirus-provoked business shutdowns in the United States caused a number of market observers to focus on the U.S. real estate and rental markets. As the federal moratorium on evictions reaches its expiry, a recent Aspen Institute report reveals that 20 million renters or around 20% of 110 million American citizens who rent, will possibly face eviction by September.

Over a week ago, news.Bitcoin.com reported on the pending U.S. real estate crisis, as last month’s data had shown 4.3 million mortgage delinquencies, while commercial properties have also started to sink in value as well. American citizens, economists, and market analysts have been worried about the rental and mortgage sector ever since Covid-19 made its way to the United States.

Now the latest findings from the Aspen Institute’s recent report indicate that homeowners who rent are going to feel more pain in the coming months. The report estimates that roughly 20 million tenants could face evictions at the end of September, and the findings blame issues on the post-Covid-19 economy.

“20 million renters are at risk of eviction; policymakers must act now to mitigate widespread hardship,” explains the Aspen Institute’s authors Katherine Lucas Mckay, Zach Neumann, and Sam Gilman.

The U.S. has around 110 million renters nationwide, and the Aspen Institute’s numbers are dependent on factors like the unemployment rate, cost of living, and the average American’s savings.

Another reason for the possible displacement stems from the federal moratorium on evictions expiry, which banned evictions in certain types of housing units up until July 25. Some of the local government enforced moratorium measures on the county level have expired in June. Moreover, a number of economists and analysts believe that the evictions will start to disrupt the $16 trillion U.S. commercial real estate market.

A few of the stricter American states have begun opening certain types of businesses in phases, as New York for example recently entered Phase 2, which allowed a number of different businesses to begin operating again. Other strict states, specifically in the Northeast are entering Phase 3.

States like Massachusetts will not allow Phase 4, which includes businesses like nightclubs and bars, until at the very least therapeutic action or a vaccine is available according to Governor Baker. These nationwide job losses, broken up by state-enforced phases, will affect the economy and have a domino effect on landlords who rent to tenants in the United States.

“I think it’s going to be a hail storm out there,” Jeffrey Citron, from the law firm Davidoff Hutcher & Citron LLP said about the situation. “And I think, in most instances, it’s probably in the best interest of landlords to sit down and work with their tenants,” he added.

Despite the data from the Aspen Institute and the moratorium expirations, a number of real estate visionaries think ‘things will be fine,’ thanks to another round of government stimulus, otherwise known as the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).

One particularly hard-hit real estate and rental market will likely be New York and last Sunday, the U.S. government revealed the names of certain businesses that benefited from PPP. Reports say “multiple New York City real estate companies have locked down funds from the Paycheck Protection Program.” The stimulus funding from the federal government ($650 billion nationwide) could help rental and real estate markets fend off disaster.

In the media, Covid-19 has been a great excuse for the federal government to print money on a whim, and many Americans still believe it will help the economy. The biggest weight on commercial, multi-family, and single-family real estate will be the unemployment rate, which will lead to nationwide evictions. While certain investments like gold and a myriad of cryptocurrencies have weathered the storm, many investors think that real estate is an extremely risky investment right now.

What’s worse is, even with the strict state-enforced phase restrictions, “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary says that U.S. businesses are using “the pandemic as a cloak.” Essentially, O’Leary stressed on Wednesday’s “Squawk Box,” American companies wanted to relieve these employees well before the Covid-19 outbreak.

“They wanted to do this anyway, and they’re doing it under the cloak of, ‘Gee, I can’t open so I’m just going to do it,’” O’Leary said. “Their jobs will never come back. This is great for earnings in the S&P. It’s not great for employment.”

What do you think about the U.S. housing and rental market going forward? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

The post Renters Threaten US Real Estate Market, 20 Million Americans Face Eviction appeared first on Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin ASIC Miner Manufacturing Domination: Bitmain and Microbt Battle for Top Positions

22/06/2020 by Idelto Editor

On June 16, 2020, Bitmex researchers published a report that noted bitcoin mining rig manufacturers have consolidated a great deal and in the future, Bitmex researchers predict that “only 2 to 3 players will survive into the longer term.” There’s still a number of SHA256 mining rig manufacturers today, and regional reports claim that the manufacturer Ebang expects to be listed on Nasdaq this week.

At the time of writing, there are at least 8-10 reputable mining rig manufacturers including Innosilicon, Strongu, Bitfury, and Pantech. However, the top dog mining rig manufacturers worldwide include the Chinese companies Bitmain, Microbt, Ebang, and Canaan. These four firms dominate the globe’s market share of SHA256 miners, as most mining operations leverage machines made by these companies.

Last year, the mining rig creators Canaan had an initial public offering and the company’s shares are now listed on Nasdaq. Ebang seems to be next in line to go IPO, and rumors stemming from regional reporters claim that Ebang will allegedly be listed on Nasdaq on June 26.

Despite the fact that Canaan and Ebang are U.S. IPO participants, Bitmain and Microbt dominate most of the mining rig market shares. The Bitmex researchers report called the “Battle For ASIC Supremacy,” shows that in 2017, 2018, and 2019 Bitmain controlled a majority of ASIC mining rig sales. Canaan in 2017 and 2018 came in a distant second, followed by Microbt and Ebang respectively.

The report notes that after assessing Microbt and Bitmain, Bitmex researchers have noticed Microbt is “gaining significant traction in the market, obtaining [a] share from Bitmain.” 2019 numbers show Microbt took the second place position, as far as market share is concerned, followed by Canaan and Ebang.

Unfortunately for Canaan, the IPO shares have lost over 70% since the IPO went public. Both Canaan and Ebang suffered serious net revenue losses as well in 2019, and both firms are under fire from class-action lawsuits. “At the height of Bitmain’s power during the 2017 bull market, its market share was around 75%,” explains the recent report.

Bitmex researchers stress that Bitmain appears to be “facing an almost comically abysmal corporate governance situation,” referring to the quarrel between Micree Zhan and Jihan Wu.

Microbt shares in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Whatsminer sales volume (by the number of pieces sold).

According to mining rig statistics at today’s exchange rates, the top three mining rigs are Bitmain manufactured. The third most profitable mining rig on June 22, is Microbt’s Whatminer M30S. Two more Bitmain-made Antiminers lead the pack and another Microbt rig, before Innosilicon and Ebang machines show profits. The top mining rig as far as profitability is concerned on the market today is the Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro (110TH/s).

Any machine that produces 50 terahash per second (TH/s) to 100TH/s is in the top ten profitability wise. Many of the machines that are not made by the top four mining manufacturers in China, are not profitable at today’s bitcoin (BTC) price per unit at a rate of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). At $0.04 per kWh, a number of the older generation machines and rigs not made by the four top dogs, can rake in some profits using today’s BTC exchange rate.

Bitcoin mining manufactures and pool operations have failed in great numbers over the last five years with companies like Butterfly Labs, Mining ASIC Technologies, BTC Guild, and Cointerra. At that time, machines manufactured by those companies only processed 10-15TH/s.

Bitcoin ASIC Miner Manufacturing Domination: Bitmain and Microbt Battle for Top Positions — The top six mining rigs at today’s bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate on June 22, 2020, at $0.04 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).

The current next-gen machines created by Bitmain, Microbt, Canaan, and Ebang are in the 50TH/s to 100TH/s range. Bitmex researchers think that these machines will likely have a longer shelf life than the bitcoin mining rig predecessors of the past.

“The lifespan of ASIC mining machines is likely to extend considerably and the current generation of products may remain in operation for several years,” the report concludes.

What do you think about the four top mining rig manufactures current dominance? Let us know in the comments section below.

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Covid-19 Economy Fuels Faith in Crypto: Trust In Bitcoin Over Banks Increased 3X Since 2017

19/05/2020 by Idelto Editor

The market research organization, The Tokenist, recently published a report called “Comparing Public Bitcoin Adoption Rates in 2020 vs 2017.” The study’s findings give a comprehensive look at the cryptocurrency ecosystem between 2017 and now. The researchers’ survey shows that since the post-Covid-19 economy is setting in, trust in bitcoin has grown 29% in the past three years.

Faith In Traditional Banks and Financial Incumbents Is Waning

A recently published study from the crypto think tank, The Tokenist, details that there is a growing trust in bitcoin over traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate. The market researchers leveraged a survey that was taken in April 2020 (5,421 participants in 24 countries) and collated several surveys from 2017 as well. The Tokenist utilized these polls to see how attitudes and perceptions have changed since the price fluctuations and the impact of Covid-19.

“Faith in large financial institutions has been steadily waning for more than a decade and the COVID-19 pandemic has only accelerated this process,” the report highlights. “Bitcoin, itself developed in the years after the 2008 market crash as an alternative to traditional assets, stands to be a major beneficiary of this trend.”

47% of the Poll’s Respondents Trust Bitcoin Over Big Banks

The Tokenist also leveraged surveys from the company’s mailing list and another that saw 4,852 participants in 17 countries. According to the study’s findings, The Tokenist researchers have found that there is a trend of individuals with “positive sentiment regarding BTC as a long term store of value.”

The findings note that over 45% of respondents preferred Bitcoin rather than stocks, real estate, and gold, and “61% of the total respondents (and 78% of millennials) are now somewhat familiar with BTC, and 14% of millennials have owned the asset.” The report continued:

47% of respondents trust Bitcoin over big banks, an increase of 29% in the past three years. 43% of respondents, and 59% of millennials, feel that most people will be using Bitcoin within the next decade. In 2020, 44% of millennials report that they are likely to buy BTC in the next five years. More than one in three millennials would hold onto Bitcoin they are given, while a slightly smaller number (27%) would immediately sell it. 39% of male millennials now have no problem with the intangible nature of BTC, and a quarter of millennials as a whole report the same attitude.

The report finds that the attitude toward BTC, in general, is more positive and optimism has increased by 27% during the last three years. “60% of respondents felt that Bitcoin is a positive innovation in financial technology,” The Tokenist’s report concludes. “Increased familiarity with Bitcoin has convinced many that it is a positive force,” the paper’s authors added.

What do you think about The Tokenist’s researchers’ surveys and findings? Let us know in the comments below.

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S2F Hopium: Report and Twitter Critics Find Flaws With Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio

19/05/2020 by Idelto Editor

S2F Hopium: Report and Twitter Critics Find Flaws With Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Ratio

In mid-April, news.Bitcoin.com researched the popular stock-to-flow (S2F), which shows the price of a single bitcoin reaching $55K and even six figures. At the time, analysts questioned measuring bitcoin’s price in this manner and more recently, a few others have been criticizing the method as well. Just recently, a research report written by the author Francis Tapon finds eight flaws in bitcoin’s S2F model. Additionally, the well known crypto proponent Eric Wall has shown criticism toward Plan B’s S2F tweets as well.

Report Finds 8 Flaws With Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Model

For well over a year now, crypto advocates have discussed the popular editorial called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity” written by the Twitter account Plan B. The report has caught the attention of the community for quite some time. This is because it predicts the price of a single BTC will be at least $55,000 or even $150,000 in the future. Certain types of crypto proponents love the research and stock-to-flow (S2F) models, but skeptics believe it’s because it may pad their bullish confirmation bias that someday BTC will be worth tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands at some point in time.

#bitcoin S2FX clusters:

1 – S2F 1.3 -> Market Value $1M -> BTC $0.23
2 – S2F 3.3 -> $58M -> $6
3 – S2F 10.2 -> $5B -> $410
4 – S2F 25.1 -> $114B -> $6700
5 – S2F 56.0 -> $5.5T -> $288K

Beauty is that change in S2F is proportional to change in BTC Market Value (d_MV=d_S2F^4.1)🔥 pic.twitter.com/jdM8kBFMdj

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 15, 2020

Basically, the S2F ratio divides abundance with demand by treating bitcoin like commodities such as gold or platinum. This means any analyst can use the model to evaluate the current number of bitcoins in circulation against the number of coins mined during a specific year. The last BTC halving plays a crucial role in the S2F model and if Plan B’s predictions are correct, BTC could be around $55K within the next two years.

S2F Hopium: Report and Twitter Critics Find Flaws With Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Ratio — “Although most quants agree that gold’s stock-to-flow ratio is in the 60s, a few believe it’s much higher. For example, Philip Barton, a gold analyst, argues that gold’s stock to flow is between 400 and 800,” details the author Francis Tapon in his recent report. “Admittedly, Barton is an outlier,” Tapon continues. “The consensus is that gold’s stock-to-flow ranges between 50 and 70. Still, it’s worth noting that some believe there is far more stock out there than we realize. How could gold’s stock-to-flow ratio be 800? The main reasoning is that when humans first started collecting gold, there was a lot of low-hanging fruit. Enormous gold nuggets were easy to grab in the streams and other sources. It’s reasonable to assume that for billions of years, gold nuggets simply sat in the streams since no animal valued them. When humans began collecting gold, the global gold stock must have soared exponentially. Its curve must have looked like the first decade of bitcoin’s supply curve.”

However, not everyone believes the model and news.Bitcoin.com discussed this situation during the first week of April. But now there is more evidence that the S2F model may not be as reliable as everyone believes and two critics who have explained publicly why S2F may be bunk. Just before the halving, author Francis Tapon who wrote the books “The Unseen Africa” and “The Hidden Europe,” wrote a research report on Plan B’s model.

Tapon’s argument gives the reader eight reasons why the stock-to-flow model has flaws. The number one reason why S2F has problems is because it defies physics. “Some critics say that the stock-to-flow model will break in 2140, which is when we cannot mine new bitcoins. At that point, the S2F model predicts that the price of bitcoin will go to infinity,” Tapon explains. “Although that is a problem, bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model is doomed to break at least 100 years before that date.” Tapon also stresses in his report, that there are two things BTC would have to do:

[One] Bitcoin’s price would have to double every year, on average, for the next 30 years. That’s 30 doublings. No asset has ever come close to such a performance. Maybe pre-IPO Microsoft or Google or Walmart had such a rise for 10 years. But doublings become extremely difficult once an asset becomes large. [And two] we would need to invent nuclear fusion reactors and become a Type 1 Civilization. Bitcoin consumes vast amounts of energy. The higher the price goes, the more it consumes.

Cointegration Invalidation?

The seven other flaws Tapon has found include the fact that “not everyone agrees on what is gold’s stock-to-flow ratio, gold’s stock-to-flow isn’t fixed, gold’s stock-to-flow does not drive it’s price, some metals with extremely low stock-to-flow ratios are worth more than gold, S2F doesn’t explain the prices of other cryptocurrencies, S2F assumes that bitcoin’s demand continues to grow exponentially, and S2F underestimates the powers that be.”

It is also worth noting that Plan B has blocked Francis Tapon on Twitter as well. According to Tapon, he had sent Plan B his analysis for review and Plan B responded by saying: “Blocked – Reason: pure click-bait (“flaw” “fail” “doomed”, only old and debunked arguments).” However, Tapon thinks that his arguments are valid and concluded his report by saying:

The stock-to-flow model has been a novel way of looking at bitcoin’s early, meteoric years. However, it will soon break because it predicts nonstop doubling year after year. Our solar system prohibits nonstop doubling. Let’s be happy with a 14x return in the 2020s. That would result in a $100,000 BTC price in 2029. Still, I secretly hope I’m wrong and that the stock-to-flow model is right.

In addition to Tapon, the digital currency proponent Eric Wall has been tweeting about Plan B’s models and his statements as well. On Saturday, Wall tweeted two photos of Plan B explaining what it would take to invalidate his S2F model. Despite the number of critiques published and contradictions, a slew of bitcoiners wholeheartedly believe in the S2F model.

“Oh, so I lost that one thing I’ve been saying my model would become invalid without? ‘Tis but a scratch!” pic.twitter.com/Uwlvju9ku7

— Eric Wall (@ercwl) May 16, 2020

On May 12, the secretary and vice-chairman of the Digibyte Foundation Rudy Bouwman tweeted: “Preparing for the next bull run? How long can miners that haven’t switched off, continue mining with a loss? [The] S2F model has proven highly accurate in charting price performance. BTC to +$100K in the next 2 years?” Two days prior, Quantmario published a report leveraging the S2F model called “The LGS-S2F Bitcoin price formula” It is safe to say that the stock-to-flow model isn’t going anywhere for quite some time, but the S2F theory does have its critics.

What do you think about the stock-to-flow model and the criticism? Let us know what you think in the comments below.

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2 Days After the Bitcoin Halving: Network ‘Remains Strong,’ Higher Fees, Bullish Sentiment

13/05/2020 by Idelto Editor

On May 11, 2020, the Bitcoin network completed it’s third block reward halving and the network seems to be chugging along just fine. However, it may take a while longer to see the halving’s effect on the mining industry and right now bitcoin transaction fees have risen exponentially. Despite the rising fees, the research firm Glassnode explains that the Bitcoin blockchain’s health “remains strong” after the reward reduction.

Despite the Rise in Bitcoin Transaction Fees, Glassnode Report Says Overall Network Health remains strong

The Bitcoin (BTC) network has halved its block reward and so far, everything is still working as intended, at least for now. One issue people are complaining about today is the fact that transaction fees have risen significantly since the halving. For instance, if one was to do a rough average of the 50 blocks mined before the halving, they would see that miners were getting around 0.205 BTC in transaction fees per block.

After the halving, however, and a little beforehand, the transaction (txn) fees started rising much higher. At the time of publication, the fee required to get into the next block can range between $2-4 per txn. 241 blocks have been mined so far after the halving, and miners are getting around 1 BTC in fees per block or a touch more or touch less per block. Meaning, most miners are getting around 7.5 to 8 BTC per block, which is not too bad of a loss especially with the price rising slowly.

A recent report from the research and analysis firm Glassnode called “The Week Onchain: Week 19, 2020,” explains that the Bitcoin network is still in peak health performance-wise. Bitcoin fundamentals remained strong leading up to and following the halving,” Glassnode reported. “Hashrate follows its trajectory as miners keep mining,” the report added. As far as BTC’s market health is concerned “onchain fundamentals dropped slightly in Week 19,” Glassnode said. “GNI registered a 2 point decrease over the week, pushing its overall assessment of the Bitcoin ecosystem to 74 points, the 10th highest weekly value since 2017. This downturn was mainly driven by the Sentiment subindex, which decreased by 13 points,” the company wrote. Glassnode further continued:

Network Health improved through solid gains in both Network Growth and Network Activity, the former reaching the highest possible value for the first time since 2017. Liquidity has seen marginal improvement over the last few weeks after registering increases in Transaction Liquidity and slight decreases in Trading Liquidity. After staying close to the 50 point mark for 5 weeks, it has now worked its way up by 9 points. In the lead up to Bitcoin’s third halving, Sentiment, on the other hand, has begun to drop sharply. Despite this, however, overall network health remains strong.

Coinshares CEO: ‘Bitcoin Is the Perfect Hedge for Any Investor’

Additionally, many BTC investors and cryptocurrency company executives are still very optimistic about bitcoin’s next rise. Jean-Marie Mognetti, CEO of Coinshares, detailed in a note to investors that with “the courage of [his] conviction, [he is] bullish for bitcoin.”

“Meanwhile, the Fed is trying to keep the market sentiment positive and has extended its balance sheet by about 2.6 trillion dollars since the end of February,” Mognetti wrote. “This is the biggest monetary inflation ever witnessed and the market is expecting more fiscal stimulus and bond-buying programs to be issued. This is somehow already priced in with Fed fund futures for mid-2021 and end of 2021 price implying negative Fed rates. This is a first for the US, but we are in a time of “firsts”. Oil was also not supposed to be able to trade in negative territory,” the Coinshares CEO added. Mognetti concluded by stating:

The rest of the world needs to either keep printing money or see their own currency eroding drastically in front of the unbeatable dollars. Turkey, Brazil, or Argentina are the perfect examples of this. Consequently, in a world where investors continue to seek protection for their portfolios against the world’s Central Bank’s behavior, bitcoin, a digital currency whose supply is programmatically defined to reduce until it reaches its maximum supply, would seem to be the perfect hedge for any institutional investor’s portfolio.

At the time of publication, BTC has crossed the $9K price region once again after going below $9K just before the halving. The cryptocurrency has a market capitalization of around $166 billion today and the network hashrate was unaffected by the halving. Although data from the web portal Fork.lol shows that BTC may have lost around 15-20 exahash in the last 24 hours. If the price per BTC, continues to rise however, then those miners could easily return in the near future. If the price goes southbound, BTC network observers may see a much larger capitulation of miners leaving. So far, with more than 24 hours behind the halving and 241 blocks mined that doesn’t seem to be the case.

What do you think about the day and a half after the Bitcoin Halving? Let us know in the comments below.

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