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With Accelerating China Issues, What Is Bitcoin’s Place In Macro?

13/08/2022 by Idelto Editor

Pakistan is facing a similar fate as Sri Lanka and the Taiwan situation is heating up. Geopolitics can give us a glimpse into bitcoin’s role in macroeconomics.

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“Fed Watch” is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

In this episode, Christian Keroles and I go through several charts, giving market updates on bitcoin, the dollar index (DXY) and the Hong Kong dollar. Next, we examine the deteriorating situation in Pakistan and ask the question, “Is it the next Sri Lanka?” Lastly, we discuss the Taiwan/China situation and I read several important snippets, one from Chinese foriegn minister Wang Yi and the other from think tank expert Wang Wen.

Bitcoin And Other Currencies

We open by looking at a weekly chart of bitcoin. We’ve done this for the last few shows because it is a good way to anchor our conversation. As you can see below, the price has been very stable, sitting on the fence in regards to the volume-by-price indicator on the right.

(Source)

If we zoom out, the last period with weekly candles similar to the time of recording was back in September-October 2020, right before the monster rally from $10,000 to $40,000. Of course, we aren’t saying that it will happen again exactly like that, but it is possible.

(Source)

The dollar index (DXY) is the other major currency we take a look at today. I believe it is important to check the dollar almost every episode because it is the main competition for bitcoin.

It does seem as though it has peaked for the time being, but there is no sign that it will crash. Instead, the dollar is most likely to form a new elevated range above 100 for the next few years. This is similar to how it formed a new higher range from 2015 to 2021.

(Source)

I’ll add that a strong dollar is not bearish for bitcoin. Perhaps initially, a strong dollar is correlated to lower bitcoin, but after the dollar has stabilized in a higher range is when bitcoin has traditionally rallied.

Below is a screenshot from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority website. Each month they release statistics on their foreign currency reserves, which they use to stabilize their peg. On August 3, 2022, I speculated that maintaining the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) peg was rapidly draining their reserves. However, according to this press release, they only used slightly more than 1% of their reserves in July to maintain the peg. That means the HKD is likely able to keep the peg (if they want to) for several years.

(Source)

Pakistan On The Brink

The developing situation in Pakistan has a lot of things in common with the recent collapse in Sri Lanka. In the podcast, I point to their involvement with the World Economic Forum (WEF). Pakistan has received hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to revamp their agricultural sector and add national parks.

(Source)

Another similarity between Pakistan and Sri Lanka is the important role Chinese funding has played in the last decade. Sri Lanka lost control of their major port because they couldn’t pay back Chinese loans and now Pakistan is saddled with approximately $20 billion in high-interest loans to China and Chinese companies.

Pakistan has only two months left in the budget and are desperately courting new lenders. The Chinese have turned them down, the Arab states are thinking twice. The only place to turn is back to the IMF — and that means harsh austerity.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan are important nodes in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

(Source)

As I’ve said on many occasions, the BRI is doomed to failure. They are attempting to make places and routes economically viable where the long span of history hasn’t already done on its own. No amount of money can overturn millennia of culture and eons of geography.

Once again, one of the important links in the BRI has been bankrupted by the Chinese central planners.

Taiwan/China Situation

(Source)

I’ve been discussing the Nancy Pelosi situation and the Chinese response for days on my Telegram live streams.

In this episode of the podcast, I read some excerpts from a noted Chinese minister and a Chinese think-tank expert. You can read Wang Yi’s full comments here. Suffice it to say for this article, he repeated “One China” many times and said the U.S. is the side trying to change the status quo. He also had very harsh words for Tsai Ing-wen, the sitting President of Taiwan. He said she “betrayed the ancestors.” In another translation, I heard Yi’s original comments also said she betrayed her ancestors [and her race].

The next comments I read were from Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY) and the executive director of the China-U.S. People-to-People Exchange Research Center. He tries to explain why China’s response was so weak and that China should not provoke an armed conflict with the U.S. until it can “outperform the U.S. in terms of economic power, attain financial and military strength comparable to that of the U.S. and develop an overwhelming capacity to counter international sanctions.”

Sounds a long way off to me. I’ll simply advise the reader to not get caught up in fear-baiting rhetoric about Taiwan and China. They are disciples of Sun Tzu, who said “appear strong when you are weak.” Wen also quoted Sun Tzu.

“A major military clash with the US is not the goal of China’s foreign policy, nor is it the path to a better life for the common people. Recall what Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War: ’Do not act unless there is something to gain 非利不动; do not use military force without the certainty of victory 非得不用; do not go to war unless the situation is critical 非危不战.’”

We wrapped up the podcast talking about the upcoming consumer price index data release and other things pertinent to bitcoin. Overall, a must listen episode!

That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please subscribe, review and share! Don’t forget to check out Fed Watch Clips on YouTube. Liking and sharing videos is the best way for us to reach new people.

This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

Filed Under: Bitcoin Magazine, China, English, fed watch, macroeconomics, Markets, pakistan, Podcast, Taiwan

A European Debt Crisis Is Bullish For Bitcoin

05/08/2022 by Idelto Editor

With the current macroeconomic crisis unfolding and many European countries at risk of debt defaults, bitcoin enters the ring as a neutral reserve asset.

This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Brandon Green to talk about how the European debt crisis is bullish for bitcoin.

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Brandon Green: Yeah, there are other things. There are other questions that I’m thinking about. Another one would be, as you’re starting to look at politicians more and more involved in the space one thing that’s gonna be fascinating is like who, who are our real quote unquote friends, right?

It’s easy to come out and support Bitcoin. It’s growing and it’s exploding and you, the politician, can see the dollar signs in signaling for it publicly. It’s another thing when we’re in a bear market and it’s not the sexy thing, and it’s not even popular to be talking about it at the moment. Are they still gonna come out and defend it?

I don’t know. My gut says probably not. I think that maybe you have [Cynthia] Lummis, maybe there’s a couple other ones who like, actually care about Bitcoin, but I would say for the most part, they’re just there to get more votes and figure out how to co-op our movement. I think that’s gonna be another interesting thread.

The biggest thing that I’m paying attention to specifically for Bitcoin is the resolution of the macroeconomic crisis we’ve thrown ourselves into. And this is something that I was talking about a little while ago on the Twitter space. You have a scenario right now where the EU is teetering on dissolving.

There’s no other way to play it. You’ve got really two factions. You have the “PIGS” countries: Portugal, Italy Greece and Spain, Ireland is sometimes thrown in there. They’re all relative importers, like they import more than they export. They are high in debt.

A lot of times these are the countries that basically got bailed out by Super Mario Draghi after the great financial crisis in 2008. If you hadn’t done that, it looked like the EU could have toppled then. And what ended up happening is that the European Central Bank said, “All right, we’ll just buy the debt from all of these Southern European countries and basically become a backstop.”

They’ve continued to do that. The ECB is standing up for the southern countries of the EU and that’s fine — it was fine — because the EU was a net exporter. And so because of that, you still had demand for the currency coming from abroad. With the whole Russia gas crisis where Germany and other countries got cut off from Russian gas, their costs for energy crept up so much that it actually erased their net exports. Now, Germany even, and all these other countries are now net importers as well, which has caused a demand for the euro to cave.

You saw the euro hit parity with the dollar earlier. You’re actually looking at a scenario where the euro is itself weakening. The problem with the ECB is that it has only really one mandate, which is to maintain the stability of the euro. It’s not to protect the entire EU and prevent it from dissolving.

There’s this starting to form these perverse incentives where if they’re gonna protect the euro, that means raising [interest rates]. But if they raise rates and they stop the purchasing of debt from southern countries, which would protect the value of the euro. By doing that, you raise rates, you stop printing money.

Then you run into a scenario where no one’s buying PIGS’ nations’ debt. And at that point, they default on their debts, and if PIGS nations default on their debt — again, this is Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain — you’re running into a problem where they need to renominate in their own currency so that they can actually print their way and inflate their way out of it.

That’s their only choice and that’s starting to happen. The ECB actually raised rates 25 basis points last week. At the same time, you saw Super Mario [Draghi] step down as the prime minister of Italy. You’re seeing some of the machinations of this happen right now.

This is very important to pay attention to. The alternative would be the northern countries; you’ve got Scandinavia plus Germany, which had been the economic powerhouse — I’ll explain why kind of all this matters with Bitcoin — but you have the economic powerhouses that have been these net exporters that are seeing the inflation in the system. And they’re saying, wow, okay. We don’t wanna keep printing all this money. We need to tighten up so that we don’t all see this rampant inflation, to prop up the PIGS nations. If the inflation isn’t curved, if the spending by the government isn’t stopped, then the northern countries will all elect their own populous leaders, similar to how the U.K. Brexited and you’ll see Germany and some of these northern countries exit the EU on the other end.

The reason why this is interesting to me for Bitcoin is because there’s not a lot of solutions for Europe. If that happens, you’re gonna see huge amounts of currencies, basically being minted and printed overnight. A lot of people are not gonna go back to that system of redenominating their debts on a new currency.

That’s also backed by nothing, right? These currencies need to be derived from something and so Bitcoin is a huge answer for that. If that doesn’t happen, the only alternative is for someone like the U.S. to step in and basically do yield curve control for the EU. That is not our mandate. I can tell you that.

And it’s gonna cause us to start printing even more money than we imagine printing for COVID. If we’re having to prop up the entire EU with our federal reserve.

P: And so what would that look like? What do you mean when you say yield curve control of the EU?.

Green: Let me back up. What is yield curve control? Yield curve control is basically your attempt at controlling the interest rates on a bond. And by doing that, you’re actually putting that bonds payout below what the inflation rate is. So anyone who’s purchasing bonds is like, “All right, I don’t wanna hold this bond. I’m losing money in real terms.” Then they sell it. If you sell bonds, you need a buyer. If no one’s buying, then the rates start rising and that causes the debt to be higher. So what the EU does usually is they go in and backstop it and they say, “All right, we will just buy all bonds at this price level and basically control the yield curve control the yield on it.”

They can’t do that anymore. Cuz they printed too much money and there’s inflation and all this kind of stuff. The only person who could really be in a position to do anything about it is [Jerome] Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the U.S. did that, then you would see just massive printing of the dollar and you would get into the same basic macroeconomic set that got us from 2009 to today, which you’ve seen what bitcoin has done.

So that’s the other case of Bitcoin, like either way you slice this, is incredibly bullish for the price of bitcoin. It’s just, it comes at the expense of stability in somewhere like Europe.

Filed Under: Bitcoin Magazine, bitcoin magazine podcast, debt crisis, English, Europe, macroeconomics, Markets, Podcast

New Optimistic Buyers Flock To Bitcoin

03/08/2022 by Idelto Editor

Holders who have accumulated bitcoin over the past six months aren’t liquidating their positions despite unrealized losses, suggesting conviction in the asset.

This is an opinion editorial by Mike Ermolaev, head of public relations at the ChangeNOW exchange and a contributor for Bitcoin Magazine.

A much-awaited recovery rally has occurred for bitcoin prices after a month of consolidation around $20,000. Interestingly, this coincides with the previous cycle peak in 2017.

Short-term momentum remains favorable, while longer-term macro indicators suggest a firmer foundation may take time.

Bitcoin’s 66% decline from its all-time high has largely evicted speculators, leaving only whales and those with strong convictions to hold.

However, a recent trend has seen short-term holders flock to the $20,000 region, where ownership is being transferred from capitulating sellers to more optimistic buyers.

Source: Glassnode 

At the same time, holders who have accumulated coins over the past six months refuse to liquidate their positions despite heavy unrealized losses, suggesting they are less sensitive to market fluctuations.

Source: Glassnode 

The Mayer Multiple — a multiple of the current bitcoin price over the 200-day moving average — dropped below 0.55 at the extreme of this price correction, indicating the market traded at a 45% discount to the 200 daily moving average. Bitcoin prices have historically formed cyclical bottoms under this level, but this has been rare, occurring less than 3% of the time. 

Source: Glassnode 

As of right now, bitcoin appears to be eclipsing that level after having been below it for some time. This means the worst of the bitcoin bear market is likely over, if history is any guide.

There is also an interesting interaction when the cost basis for the long-term holders rises above the aggregate cost basis for the wider market (the realized price). For the long-term holders’ realized price, long-term holders need to either purchase coins above their cost basis or wait until coins with higher cost bases mature beyond the 155-day mark. This is rare during a bear market.

The realized price climbs above the long-term holders’ realized price in times of market bottoms, sustained strength and sufficient demand to offset profit-taking. Historically, bear market low divergences have lasted between 248 days and 575 days. A period of 17 days has been in effect for the current cycle, a comparatively short time frame.

Source: Glassnode 

BTC Price Is Determined By Macro

Although we wanted bitcoin to be independent from traditional markets and macroeconomic indicators, this is not the case right now. With the entry of major institutional players and their vast amounts of liquidity, this dependence has intensified. Therefore, the behavior of digital assets is influenced by global liquidity flows.

This is why M2 money supply, which includes physical cash, deposits and less liquid money including bank savings accounts, can be a leading indicator of bitcoin’s price movement.

Moreover, as we can often see at ChangeNOW, the S&P 500 and bitcoin prices are closely correlated. From a larger perspective, the S&P is driven by the consolidated balance sheets of major central banks. In general, a rising S&P 500 is associated with expanding central bank balance sheets and the same is true for bitcoin.

Source: Yardeni.com 

So, you can get a sense of bitcoin’s future by monitoring the aggregated central banks’ balance sheets chart.

Bottom Line

In analyzing bitcoin‘s on-chain activity, we at ChangeNOW can see that long-term holders, who are less affected by bitcoin price volatility, never left the market, while short-term speculators escaped during the recent sell-off, allowing more optimistic buyers to enter. Meanwhile, as we look at global liquidity flows originating from major central banks, we can get a sense of what is going on with bitcoin’s price, as well as what is to come in the near future. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a strong long-term bull, a capitulating seller, a fresh buyer or just watching from afar, we all need to understand the logical side of this seemingly chaotic bitcoin market.

This is a guest post by Mike Ermolaev. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

Filed Under: Bitcoin Magazine, English, macroeconomics, Markets, Opinion, S&P 500, Technical Analysis

Brewing Emerging Market Debt Crises

13/07/2022 by Idelto Editor

The U.S. dollar has risen to 20-year highs while the Japanese yen and the euro are acting like emerging market currencies. Are these crisis warning signs?

The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

DXY Annual Change Signals Crises Unfolding

As the Federal Reserve, who holds sole control over the monetary policy of the world reserve currency, continues to tighten monetary policy of the U.S. dollar, the global economy has begun to break as a result, being hit with a strong dollar and soaring commodity prices in tandem.

We can look to the U.S Dollar Index (DXY), which measures a weighted basket of fiat currencies against the dollar, which has soared to two-decade highs. Comparing the DXY year-over-year change with bitcoin, we can see clearly the market periods throughout bitcoin’s history that coincide with rising and falling dollar strength. 

The bitcoin price shows an inverse correlation to the strength of the DXY.

So while the adoption of bitcoin and cryptocurrency more broadly has its own native adoption curve, the cyclical bubbles and busts can be thought to be both enabled and then subsequently crashed by the ebbs and flows of central bank monetary policy dovishness and hawkishness.

Turning our attention to Japan and Europe, both the Japanese yen and euro are behaving like emerging market currencies. The two majors have lost more in value against the dollar over the last year than the FXMC emerging markets index basket consisting of the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, South African rand and Turkish lira. Of the equally-weighted basket, the yuan and peso have lost 3.5% and 3.8% respectively over the last year while the rand has lost 15.7% and the lira has fallen nearly 50%. 

Both the euro and the Japanese yen are down significantly when compared to the U.S. dollar

The structural imbalance with the euro and the yen are due to both the EU and Japan being large importers of energy, while their central banks, the ECB and the BoJ respectively, continue to aggressively debase their currency with various forms of yield curve control.

The irony is that the world’s second and third largest currencies are not in fact emerging markets, but rather developed economies that now have a massive shortage of energy and real commodities that cannot be solved with a central bank money printer. The currencies are collapsing as a result of this imbalance.

Incoming Emerging Market Debt Defaults

According to Bloomberg, there is nearly a quarter trillion dollars worth of emerging market debt that is trading in distress accounting for approximately 17% of all emerging market debt denominated in dollars, euros or yen.

As bitcoin/cryptocurrency natives know all too well in recent months, the default of one counterparty is only isolated in theory, and in practice the second/third order effects are seemingly impossible to know beforehand.

In regards to El Salvador’s bitcoin adoption, the nation has only purchased $38 million worth of bitcoin, and given citizens the option to use either BTC or USD as a tax-free legal tender, which is a pittance compared to the $800 million worth of dollar debt owed on its bonds in 2025.

The key thing to understand is that in a debt-based monetary system, a debt crisis is essentially a short squeeze. Specifically in regards to the dollar, despite the gigantic amount of stimulus supplied throughout 2020 into 2021, a structural shortage of dollars exists due to the construction of the international monetary order.

There may have been and may still be a surplus of dollars, but the massive implicit short position around the world creates a supply/demand imbalance; a shortage of dollars. The response is that dollar-denominated assets are sold to cover positions on dollar liabilities, which creates a feedback loop of falling asset prices, declining liquidity, debtor creditworthiness, and increasing economic weakness.

Bitcoin is absolutely scarce, but has no structural shortage built into the system. During a credit unwind, bitcoin sells off as people rush for dollars to cover their short positions (debts).

To quote our March 7 issue,

“It would be wise to warn our readers that despite being extremely bullish on bitcoin’s prospects over the long term, the current macroeconomic outlooks looks extremely weak. Any excessive leverage present in your portfolio should be evaluated.

“Bitcoin in your cold storage is perfectly safe while mark-to-market leverage is not. For willing and patient accumulators of bitcoin, the current and potential future price action should be viewed as a massive opportunity.

“If a liquidity crisis is to play out, indiscriminate selling of bitcoin will occur (along with every other asset) in a rush to dollars. What is occurring during this time is essentially a short squeeze of dollars.

“The response will be a deflationary cascade across financial markets and global recession if this is to unfold.”

Final Note

The contagion that has occurred in recent months in cryptocurrency markets may have been just a taste of what is to come next in traditional financial markets. Despite bitcoin being nearly 70% from its all-time highs, bitcoin is currently treated as a high beta asset to legacy market liquidity dynamics, and if the worst is yet to come in regards to deleveraging and further volatility in the traditional markets, bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. It will be subject to the global flight to dollars during a major risk-off event.

Filed Under: Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin Magazine Pro, debt crisis, DXY, English, Euro, macroeconomics, Markets, U.S. dollar, yen

Is Bitcoin A Warning Sign For Global Deleveraging?

23/06/2022 by Idelto Editor

Bitcoin has no lender of last resort for those who take undue risks. Bitcoin’s recent leverage cleansing is par for the course for a truly scarce asset.

The below is a direct excerpt of Marty’s Bent Issue #1228: “Deleveraging bitcoin before the world de-levers.” Sign up for the newsletter here.

The bitcoin market is in the process of going through a great deleveraging event. The process started last month when the Luna-Terra ponzi blew up spectacularly and was forced to liquidate approximately 80,000 bitcoin. The process accelerated last week when Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and Babel Finance proved to be overextended in exotic high-yield token projects that crashed hard and, in the case of Babel, lending to those overextending in these projects.

Each entity’s failure brought with it a wave of bitcoin sell orders that drove the price below $18,000 over the weekend. As of right now, the price of bitcoin has recovered, currently sitting above $20,000, however rumors are swirling that there are many more companies struggling behind the scenes that will bring with them more massive sell orders as these entities seek liquidity to cover their obligations. We shall see if these rumors materialize into truth.

Whether they do or don’t, this mass deleveraging is healthy for a few reasons. First, it reduces the amount of interconnected risk throughout the bitcoin market. Second, the epic blow ups — especially Celsius, which lured people into their trap of a company by promising yields on bitcoin that were attained by taking insane risks across DeFi protocols, lending and bitcoin mining — are providing a new wave of early adopters with the hard lesson of trusting your precious sats with centralized third parties who take undue risk with your bitcoin. This lesson has been taught many times throughout the years: Mt. Gox, Mintpal, QuadrigaCX, BitConnect, OneCoin. Celsius can now be added to this list. Lastly, the rapid and violent deleveraging is showing that bitcoin is a truly free market. If you take undue risks and those risks come back to bite you in the ass, there is no lender of last resort.

Due to the normalization of playing far out on the risk curve that the fiat system has brought with it, many felt comfortable playing fiat games with their bitcoin. They are coming to find that bitcoin is a cruel mistress and if you don’t treat her right by holding and securing your own keys, you will be wiped out with the tide when the seas get turbulent. Over time, as more people learn this lesson, the market should self-correct and individuals should opt for products that allow them to have control of a key or keys within a quorum when interacting with third parties if they decide to engage with them in the first place. Bitcoin is a perfectly scarce asset that should increase in purchasing power over longer timeframes, so picking up pennies to potentially lose fortunes will become more obviously stupid as time moves forward.

The price drop is definitely a bit jarring, but it’s nothing new. Simply par for the course of a perfectly scarce asset going through its early monetization phase during which we humans attempt to understand the dynamics of the network and how we will interact with it.

Now here’s where things get interesting. Bitcoin is having a massive cleansing event at a time when it is becoming abundantly clear that the fiat monetary system is about to be absolutely steamrolled by the compounding errors that have been made by policy makers over the course of decades. It truly does feel like “this is the big one.” Central bankers across the world seem increasingly worried and, more importantly, their recent policy changes are seeming to be wholly ineffective. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes may actually be making inflation prospects worse as a rapidly increasing federal funds rate leads to significant increases in the cost of capital, which is only making it harder for energy companies to invest in the infrastructure needed to begin quelling the supply-side issue that is causing prices to skyrocket. 

As we said last week, the Fed failing to tame inflation after making some of the most aggressive rate increases in the last thirty years could lead to a collapse in confidence that could release the hyperinflation hounds. Last week, we warned about the Bank of Japan losing control of its yield curve control efforts. As the calendar has turned and price increases around the world seem less likely to slow down any time soon, the situation in Japan is becoming more dire as the Japanese 10-year government bond fails to hold the 0.25% rate the Bank of Japan has been targeting. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is so high that it is literally impossible for them to raise rates in conjunction with Western economies. If they did, they would bankrupt the country in the process. So instead of overt default, it seems that Japan is choosing the route of hyperinflation as they will be forced to print unimaginable amounts of yen to try to control rates.

via DB via ZeroHedge

Like we said last week, if the Bank of Japan loses control and hyperinflation breaks out across the country, it will be game over for the rest of the world’s developed economies who have pursued similar policies, which includes the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and many others. A Japan-like blow up is the end state of every single central bank who embarked on QE4eva.

With this in mind, your Uncle Marty is envisioning a scenario that could potentially play out over the course of this summer and into the early fall that may provide a path to “decoupling” for bitcoin.

There’s no way to tell if a significantly de-levered and relatively cheap bitcoin would be the asset that individuals and larger capital allocators turn to as the world goes to shit, finally bringing to fruition the “safe haven” narrative. It’s hard to deny that the conditions for a decoupling to actually happen will be riper than they ever have been. Keep an eye out on this as we get closer to October and November 2022.

Filed Under: Bank of Japan, Bitcoin Magazine, English, Global Debt, leverage, macroeconomics, Markets, Marty's Bent, yen

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