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What The Sanctioning Of Tornado Cash Means For Bitcoin

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What Ethereum’s Tornado Cash protocol being blacklisted by the government means for Bitcoin, and how to read the consumer price index print.

This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Dylan LeClair and Sam Rule to talk about the recent Tornado Cash sanctions by the U.S. Treasury.

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Dylan LeClair: Tornado cash is an open-source, Ethereum mixing wallet, like Samourai Wallet or Wasabi (which has already started to become OFAC compliant and blacklisting certain addresses). These are just ultimately a collaborative bitcoin transaction. People call it a coin-mixing solution or whatever they try to call it to try to criminalize it. It’s just a bitcoin transaction; it’s just a collaborative spend. That’s just information. You could make an argument that it’s against free speech in a way, but the State’s not gonna really accept that.

It’s just not a good precedent. The founder, who is just a builder of software is getting potentially canceled because he created something that the U.S government didn’t like and they blamed Korea.

It was pretty ridiculous, but just a pretty important day, in general, and not great for the privacy movement, in general, but we’ve known it’s been coming. We’ve known that it was just a matter of time.

Q: I wanna play devil’s advocate. I’m not asking this question because I think any action is justified, I am just a vehicle to share a different idea. Let’s ignore the Tornado Cash, but let’s say this actually happened to Do Kwon or Mashinsky. Would your feelings be different?

LeClair: Let’s distinguish a fraud, Alex Masinsky, and think what you want about whether Do Kwon was building something in earnest or knew it was all a Ponzi all along. I’m not gonna make that call here. But in terms of what Alex Masinsky and Celsius did, it was fraudulent, so it’s different than someone who’s building software. It’s non-custodial, like Tornado Cash is a non-custodial Ethereum mixer. You send in a transaction — I don’t even know the exact technicals as well as I do with bitcoin and mixing — but you send in eth and it’s a smart contract that executes and mixes it up and you can’t tell what’s the input and what’s the output is the base of it. Sorry if I bundled the response a little. The founder or the creator of this software, Roman Semenov, doesn’t actually touch the eth. There’s this really petty eth versus bitcoin flame war going on, where all this hype around the merge and potentially the .eth Twitter cult will go against the Bitcoin Maximalist Twitter cult. It’s all pretty dumb and I think it’s missing the bigger point that a clamp down is coming.

Whether Ethereum has its merits or is riding on the backs of Bitcoin is anybody’s judge. I align probably more with the Bitcoin Maximalist viewpoint. Screeching that everything’s a scam over the past decade hasn’t really served anyone well or protected anybody. People still go for the scams and so maybe we Bitcoiners should fine tune our message a little bit. Even though I’m pretty bearish on all the other altcoins against Bitcoin over the next year, five years, 10 years.

I think Ethereum is tremendously overvalued at 50% of bitcoin’s market cap, but I think that calling for more regulation into the labeling of Ethereum as a security is just probably the wrong way to go about it. To keep bringing it back here.

Sam Rule: To go back to your question, is it justified if it was some fraudulent activity or Mashinsky or something like that they’re shutting down. I guess it doesn’t really matter. If you do it for one, you’re gonna constantly find the gray area to do it more and more. It just gets back to the point that it’s just two different systems completely and are always gonna be because stablecoin are gonna be larger centralized issuers, no matter what chain, whether it’s Tron or Ethereum that they’re on, they’re gonna run into those issues. They still operate. Stablecoins by definition are a blockchain, dollar version of the financial system that we have today.

I don’t think it really matters in terms of punishment, whether it’s illegal activity or not. Now, when you think in Bitcoin terms and the innovation, what it’s meant to be is that, that you’re gonna have so many conversations. If Bitcoin is successful over the years and has so many issues with trying to shut down rails for all sorts of reasons from the system that the United States has had or where the Western world really has had very strong financial control over that. They’re gonna be losing that power, essentially. They’re not gonna be wanting to give that up in any such way.

Again, it’s just like one, probably very small example, whether I think it was North Korean money laundering, that’s gonna come up and probably many are gonna fight and say, that’s very justifiable to shut that down. It just goes back to the censorship-resistant capabilities of all this and what’s truly censorship resistant and when Bitcoin grows and it scales in these situations, is it gonna prove that it’s really truly censorship resistant? To me, that’s probably the largest risk: How much influence over governments and businesses between blacklisting addresses and trying to shut down some sort of circular economy, how much are they gonna be able to do? How much are the tools on Bitcoin gonna be able to withstand that?

LeClair: I think on this note, it’s pretty interesting. All of the macro craziness we’ve seen over the last year, I’m not just talking about like financially, but the geopolitical tension that’s increasingly being built with the United States and China and all of the sanctioning of Treasury reserves. We’re a long way away from bitcoin being anything from a shortfall asset, a 24/7/365 inverse VIX. S&P ticks down or up, bitcoin is beta on that and it’s just this reflection of the liquidity tied and all that extra speculation sloshing around.

If we do reach this point of bitcoin at $500,000 and it’s equivalent to gold, even bigger than that, bitcoin becomes liquid enough. It becomes the enemy of monies, but not at a level of drug dealers and small speculators, like it was in 2011 and it is now in 2022, but in say however long it takes, it’s gonna be liquid enough for adversarial nations to hold it in their reserves as a treasury [asset].

Bitcoin mining and the reality of the game theory of digital money and “not your keys, not your coins” at nation-state levels. It’s like, it’s not your system. And ultimately, I think the game theory of bitcoin long term is that people, institutions and eventually sovereigns are gonna opt into something where they have the rules in their favor. Whether it’s absolute scarcity, rising production cost and you get to decide that there’s no more than 21 million coins by running your own software. The bet on bitcoin is the bet that people converge upon that because there’s no other alternative. You can’t use USDC and you can’t use USTs (U.S. Treasuries) if you’re Russia or China.

So what if China invades Taiwan, and I’m not gonna pretend and larp here, like I’m some geopolitical expert and know what Xi Jinping’s gonna do with Taiwan. I don’t know, but I do know that the trend of increasing hostility between the biggest institutions and sovereigns on the planet is going to increase and the trust in this international monetary order that has been built up for the last 80 years since Bretton woods … and post-1971, that order became free-float fiat currencies. It’s this experiment; we’re really only 51 years into it. What happens when all of this boils to head and massive competitive basement and fraying of this international monetary order, which we arguably started to see over the last two years at increasing pace and probably in the next three to five? Bitcoin probably is there.

I’m pretty short term bearish. I think equities have a leg down and that we still haven’t seen the biggest volatility event in this financial meltdown, but on the topic of censorship resistance, I think one of the biggest bull cases is thinking about that geopolitical game theory, looking at why gold itself failed as global money and global money between sovereigns at the biggest level. Why that failed and why that trust, that link, that relationship failed and then look into Bitcoin or look into Ethereum, look into USDC and evaluate every asset on the planet in terms of what’s gonna fill this kind of need: this global need for a neutral reserve asset.

My bet, my conclusion is Bitcoin, but that’s me personally. I guess everyone has to make that decision for themselves, but that’s my thesis here.

All Eyes Are On The Consumer Price Index

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The consumer price index will define market moves and the new Magma protocol on the Lighting Network will allow Bitcoin to grow even bigger.

This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Joe Consorti to talk about inflation and exciting new developments on the Lightning Network.

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Q: Specifically, you guys at the Bitcoin Layer spend so much more time focusing on bonds and interest rates. What are you guys seeing? What are you guys paying attention to? What is your definition of a recession?

Joe Consorti: There are a couple of things we’re monitoring, right? Again, we use rates to lead all of our discussion, but there’s also a few key economic releases this week that will, as you mentioned, push us closer to a recession. As of right now, the expected consumer price index is 8.7% year-on-year and that’s releasing August 10, 2022. Any miss on CPI whatsoever, and a miss to the upside, that’d be very bad.

That would basically give the Federal Reserve the green light to absolutely decimate the economy in terms of continuing the rate hikes, pushing for a higher terminal rate, pushing for a terminal rate that’s further out. Basically, before the labor report, there was consensus in the market. There was, to a pretty large degree, [the idea] that the Fed was going to have to wrap up relatively soon, specifically because, taking a look at the two-year yield, that was coming down. Essentially, the two-year yield leads Fed funds. So the two-year yield is forward policy-rate expectations. And so when, wherever that moves, the Fed essentially has to move.

The two-year yield was coming down because presumably the rate market was telling the Fed, “Hey, it seems you’ve already tightened enough,” but with the strong labor report, that basically is the Fed’s first green light that they can continue hiking higher and, potentially into Q1 2023, because the economy seems stronger than we anticipated.

Obviously, their mandate is to kill inflation. If the CPI print comes in hot, if it accelerates year-on-year, those are nightmare scenarios that would basically give the Fed full steam ahead. Their runway was already extended. Seeing that we have a strong labor market, a CPI miss would give the Fed full steam ahead to just absolutely plow the markets and say, “Alright, 3.5% terminal rate in Q1, naw, we’re going for 4%.” Which obviously isn’t a sustainable thing, CPI accelerating, that’s their number one concern right now. So all eyes are on CPI on Wednesday.

That’s one of the big things we’re watching right now, but take a look at rates. As I mentioned, the two-year yield really leads the Fed. If you take a look at a graph of the two-year yield mapped against the federal funds rate, you could really see that when the two-year yield falls below the federal funds rate, the Fed is forced to pause their cycle.

As of right now, there’s a 71 basis point or 0.71% spread between the two-year yield and fed funds. So, the Fed still has 71 basis points of clearance to continue hiking. If all of a sudden, the two-year yield were to fall pretty expeditiously, that could happen if CPI prints the way we want it to. The two-year yield could begin its descent back down to Earth because that’s the market basically saying, all right, Fed, you’ve done enough work: CPI is decelerating. Then that would be the case for the Fed pausing after September potentially, and then we’ll see what the two-year yield does. Essentially that’s one of the big things we’re monitoring.

We’re also monitoring the 10-year yield, which represents forward growth and inflation expectations. If that’s coming down, that’s also the market signaling that they feel the Fed has done enough work to slow down inflation and slow down the economy. That’s begun to sell off again in the recent couple of weeks and the yield on that has bounced up from a low of 2.5%, which we actually called over the Bitcoin Layer a couple of months ago. It’s bounced back up to 2.7% now. This is mirroring what the economy believes growth and inflation to be. If we get a CPI miss then you could probably see this climb a little bit higher.

We’re also watching five-year, five-year inflation swaps, which are inflation expectations for six to 10 years out. That’s actually one of the instruments that the Fed watches to see if they’re doing their job on fighting inflation. Those have started actually coming down in the last week. There are several different signals, basically all going back to this same road of, If the economy is still rip-roaring hot, we got this jobs report. If the economy is still rip-roaring hot from a consumer price index inflation standpoint, then the Fed could really put on their hats and hunker down with the hikes.

That’s basically all we’re watching right now. The two-year yield is still trading relatively wide above the federal funds [rate], but basically monitoring that. That is the most important thing to be monitoring: The relationship between the two-year treasury yield and the federal funds rate.

That is our signal for when the Fed is going to pause. People are calling for a pivot. I believe too soon. They forget that there is an intermediary phase between a hike cycle and a pivot, and that is a pause. Chances are, if things play out as I believe, we might be looking at a pause. Sooner than most think. I think people are conflating a pause and a pivot. A pause is far more likely than a pivot would be. If we have this massive, awful deflationary spike, asset surprises get sent through the floor, yeah, you’d get a pivot. But if the economy slows down, like the Fed wants to, you get a pause and you normalize around wherever we are now, right? Wherever they end up at 2.75% or 3%. Long-winded but that’s essentially what we’re looking at, what my personal market expectations are moving into CPI on Wednesday, all eyes on CPI.

Bitcoin Helps Poor Countries Survive When Government Bonds Are Worthless

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What is so important about the gross domestic product to debt ratio and how can bitcoin help the poorest countries avoid another debt crisis?

This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by James Lavish to talk about gross domestic product, the bond market and how currencies are measured.

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James Lavish: GDP (gross domestic product) is so important to see just how much debt your country has versus how much you’re producing, and that’s becoming a glaring and really serious problem in Europe. It’s become a tremendously serious problem in Europe and they know it. That’s why the European Central Bank just raised rates for the first time in 11 years.

They were negative that whole time. So now they’re at zero. They’re at a zero interest rate and they have this problem. What do you think is gonna happen? The union has to break up. The writing’s on the wall. It’s clear. You’re seeing both a flight of capital from Europe into the U.S. dollar because both the yield — the U.S. Treasurys give you much more yield than you get in European Treasurys and German Treasurys, even). There’s a flight to safety. You want your money in dollars. You don’t want your money in euros if you’re a major investor. So, for those investors, and those institutions that have the leeway to own a certain amount of foreign-denominated securities and debt, they’ll do as much as they can because it’s a flight to safety and a flight to yield.

You’re seeing the same thing happen in Japan. We’ve talked about that before, where Japan is doing the same thing, unabashedly. They’re buying their 10-year treasuries and keeping that yield at 25 basis points. They’re keeping that yield low in order to keep energizing the economy. The problem is, as you keep that yield artificially low, then you have investors looking at yields elsewhere, like the U.S. and saying, “Okay, well I can get a better yield there. And so why am I going to stay here, owning these treasuries, when the Bank of Japan will buy them up, keep their yields low and I could instead go get 3% in a 10-year Treasury in the U.S.?”

Well, that forces you to sell yen-denominated bonds. Take your yen, sell those for dollars and buy the U.S. Treasurys. So it puts tremendous pressure on the yen.

You’ve seen the yen just spike, meaning it’s an inverse quote. So, when you see it go up from 120 or 115 up to 137, that’s the yield getting weaker. That’s the yen getting weaker; that’s the number of yen per dollar. One of the problems with currencies — I wrote something about this too — is that they’re quoted in all different ways. You’ve got inverse quotes in some of them, like GDP and yen.

Which Developed Country Will Be The First To Adopt Bitcoin?

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China and Russia seem to be cooperating in their move to back their currencies with commodities. Will Japan be the first developed nation to adopt bitcoin?

This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Jeff Ross to talk about why he thinks we are still in a bear market and which country he thinks is going to be next to adopt bitcoin as a reserve asset.

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Q: China has so much of our debt and we’ve seen now what the playbook is if you do something that the U.S. doesn’t agree with. As Iran has seen for the last 50 years, as Russia has now quickly seen, what happens when China enters some sort of a sanctioned period of time, why would they not then try to go ahead and follow the Russian playbook and strengthen their own dollar further diminishing the value of the us dollar and the global stage? Is that a scenario that’s feasible?

Jeff Ross: Yes. I say, that’s absolutely what they’re doing. And that’s absolutely what Russia and China are doing. I think they’re colluding on this. They’re banding together. They’re saying the U.S. has (from their perspective), the U.S. has screwed us for so long. Why are we allowing this? I think this happened long ago, a decade ago, they decided, “What are we on this system for? Why do we keep buying U.S. Treasurys and supporting the U.S. military industrial complex? Why wouldn’t we take a different approach and try to get off of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Therefore, what we’re gonna do is we are gonna follow the older school playbook of we are going to strengthen our own currencies by backing them with commodities.”

So what’s happened in the last decade? China was buying commodities like crazy. They were stockpiling commodities. Russia is very commodity rich, right? Tons of oil in Russia. They both have a very significant amount of gold and they’ve been increasing their gold store. And just their commodity stores in general.

Why? They’re going to use that as basically the basis to say, “Look, everyone knows that the U.S. dollar is literally backed by nothing. It used to be backed by gold until 1971. And then they got off the gold standard and they literally are backed by nothing. If you disagree, the U.S. military comes after you and sanctions come after you. That’s the price we pay.”

So they’re saying, “We have an alternative and now we’re powerful and America is aging and senile enough.” No pun intended to our leaders, but basically [America is] ruled by octogenarians who have dementia and we’re a waning power.

Russia and China are saying, “Look, this is our time to stand up and say, we have a stronger currency that is based on actual, real commodities, like gold, like oil, those kind of things.” Now, I would say the one thing that they’re not considering, Russia and China, is bitcoin to me is the most obvious, best, hardest asset.

Yes, it’s digital so you can’t touch it or look at it, but it is what it is: It’s basically perfect money. So if I were them, and I’m not, of course, and I’m not sympathetic to a lot of their causes, but they should be backing this on Bitcoin. They should be using bitcoin as a reserve asset to show, “Look, not only do we have gold and oil and other commodities to back our currencies, which are stronger than the U.S. dollar, we have a butt load of bitcoin as well. :ook how strong we are.”

That would be a good way to give the finger to the U.S. on the other hand, which is declining and has a dollar backed by nothing, backed by Treasurys, which are backed by the dollar, which is backed by nothing. They should be like, “Dude, we should be printing money as much as possible and we should be buying as much bitcoin as a reserve asset as possible to strengthen our weakening U.S. dollar.”

They should absolutely be doing that today. That’s the first thing they should do right now on their agenda, but of course they’re not gonna do that because that gives credibility to the bitcoin and acknowledges that we’re weakening and we would never do that.

I’m just not into this game playing like, “Hey, we’re so strong and we would never admit that we’re weak and we don’t need help and we rule the world.” I think that’s so stupid and that’s how great empires crumble and fall and go into obscure oblivion. That’s where we’re headed right now and I hate watching it.

Hopefully, at some point, we get some Bitcoiners up higher up in legislation. Hopefully we get some Bitcoiners for president. Hopefully we get some Bitcoiners at the Treasury and the Fed[eral reserve] and all these kinds of things. Then that will change.

By the way, my prediction is Japan will be the first one. They’re far away from that right now, but they’re in such dire straits right now and they keep trying all these crazy, obnoxious things. Is it really that obnoxious to think of Japan, instead of buying all these other garbage things and buying all the equities in the country and buying all the bonds and all this kind of stuff, what if they bought some bitcoin and strengthened their currency that way? That would actually provide longevity and strength to their currency. It wouldn’t be that crazy, and if they did it, then all of the other developed nations would be forced to do it. That would be the game theory in action.

I’m waiting for that announcement. I hope it happens. You heard it here first. I’ve been talking about that actually for about a year or so. We’ll see what happens, but if I had to guess which developed nation was going to embrace bitcoin as a reserve asset first, I would actually pick Japan as the dark horse.

A European Debt Crisis Is Bullish For Bitcoin

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With the current macroeconomic crisis unfolding and many European countries at risk of debt defaults, bitcoin enters the ring as a neutral reserve asset.

This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Brandon Green to talk about how the European debt crisis is bullish for bitcoin.

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Brandon Green: Yeah, there are other things. There are other questions that I’m thinking about. Another one would be, as you’re starting to look at politicians more and more involved in the space one thing that’s gonna be fascinating is like who, who are our real quote unquote friends, right?

It’s easy to come out and support Bitcoin. It’s growing and it’s exploding and you, the politician, can see the dollar signs in signaling for it publicly. It’s another thing when we’re in a bear market and it’s not the sexy thing, and it’s not even popular to be talking about it at the moment. Are they still gonna come out and defend it?

I don’t know. My gut says probably not. I think that maybe you have [Cynthia] Lummis, maybe there’s a couple other ones who like, actually care about Bitcoin, but I would say for the most part, they’re just there to get more votes and figure out how to co-op our movement. I think that’s gonna be another interesting thread.

The biggest thing that I’m paying attention to specifically for Bitcoin is the resolution of the macroeconomic crisis we’ve thrown ourselves into. And this is something that I was talking about a little while ago on the Twitter space. You have a scenario right now where the EU is teetering on dissolving.

There’s no other way to play it. You’ve got really two factions. You have the “PIGS” countries: Portugal, Italy Greece and Spain, Ireland is sometimes thrown in there. They’re all relative importers, like they import more than they export. They are high in debt.

A lot of times these are the countries that basically got bailed out by Super Mario Draghi after the great financial crisis in 2008. If you hadn’t done that, it looked like the EU could have toppled then. And what ended up happening is that the European Central Bank said, “All right, we’ll just buy the debt from all of these Southern European countries and basically become a backstop.”

They’ve continued to do that. The ECB is standing up for the southern countries of the EU and that’s fine — it was fine — because the EU was a net exporter. And so because of that, you still had demand for the currency coming from abroad. With the whole Russia gas crisis where Germany and other countries got cut off from Russian gas, their costs for energy crept up so much that it actually erased their net exports. Now, Germany even, and all these other countries are now net importers as well, which has caused a demand for the euro to cave.

You saw the euro hit parity with the dollar earlier. You’re actually looking at a scenario where the euro is itself weakening. The problem with the ECB is that it has only really one mandate, which is to maintain the stability of the euro. It’s not to protect the entire EU and prevent it from dissolving.

There’s this starting to form these perverse incentives where if they’re gonna protect the euro, that means raising [interest rates]. But if they raise rates and they stop the purchasing of debt from southern countries, which would protect the value of the euro. By doing that, you raise rates, you stop printing money.

Then you run into a scenario where no one’s buying PIGS’ nations’ debt. And at that point, they default on their debts, and if PIGS nations default on their debt — again, this is Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain — you’re running into a problem where they need to renominate in their own currency so that they can actually print their way and inflate their way out of it.

That’s their only choice and that’s starting to happen. The ECB actually raised rates 25 basis points last week. At the same time, you saw Super Mario [Draghi] step down as the prime minister of Italy. You’re seeing some of the machinations of this happen right now.

This is very important to pay attention to. The alternative would be the northern countries; you’ve got Scandinavia plus Germany, which had been the economic powerhouse — I’ll explain why kind of all this matters with Bitcoin — but you have the economic powerhouses that have been these net exporters that are seeing the inflation in the system. And they’re saying, wow, okay. We don’t wanna keep printing all this money. We need to tighten up so that we don’t all see this rampant inflation, to prop up the PIGS nations. If the inflation isn’t curved, if the spending by the government isn’t stopped, then the northern countries will all elect their own populous leaders, similar to how the U.K. Brexited and you’ll see Germany and some of these northern countries exit the EU on the other end.

The reason why this is interesting to me for Bitcoin is because there’s not a lot of solutions for Europe. If that happens, you’re gonna see huge amounts of currencies, basically being minted and printed overnight. A lot of people are not gonna go back to that system of redenominating their debts on a new currency.

That’s also backed by nothing, right? These currencies need to be derived from something and so Bitcoin is a huge answer for that. If that doesn’t happen, the only alternative is for someone like the U.S. to step in and basically do yield curve control for the EU. That is not our mandate. I can tell you that.

And it’s gonna cause us to start printing even more money than we imagine printing for COVID. If we’re having to prop up the entire EU with our federal reserve.

P: And so what would that look like? What do you mean when you say yield curve control of the EU?.

Green: Let me back up. What is yield curve control? Yield curve control is basically your attempt at controlling the interest rates on a bond. And by doing that, you’re actually putting that bonds payout below what the inflation rate is. So anyone who’s purchasing bonds is like, “All right, I don’t wanna hold this bond. I’m losing money in real terms.” Then they sell it. If you sell bonds, you need a buyer. If no one’s buying, then the rates start rising and that causes the debt to be higher. So what the EU does usually is they go in and backstop it and they say, “All right, we will just buy all bonds at this price level and basically control the yield curve control the yield on it.”

They can’t do that anymore. Cuz they printed too much money and there’s inflation and all this kind of stuff. The only person who could really be in a position to do anything about it is [Jerome] Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the U.S. did that, then you would see just massive printing of the dollar and you would get into the same basic macroeconomic set that got us from 2009 to today, which you’ve seen what bitcoin has done.

So that’s the other case of Bitcoin, like either way you slice this, is incredibly bullish for the price of bitcoin. It’s just, it comes at the expense of stability in somewhere like Europe.