The founder of the Silk Road marketplace, Ross Ulbricht, has published another analysis that attempts to predict the price of bitcoin. Ulbricht started sharing his price examinations last December and he leveraged the patterns of Elliott Wave theory to bolster his forecast.
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Ross Ulbricht Predicts Sub-$3K Bitcoin Prices
Ross Ulbricht has been locked behind bars for a long time now and during the last few months, he’s been publishing his analysis reports concerning the price of bitcoin going forward. News.Bitcoin.com covered Ulbricht’s first research study and detailed that Ulbricht was using the Elliott Wave theory to formulate his findings. The principle was created by Ralph Nelson Elliott and the theory involves an analysis of trends like market highs and lows. In December, Ulbricht wrote that the current wave we are in today, it could take the price to regions between $93,000 to $109,000. However, the wave can take a long time to fully materialize and the wave right now may not extend until February 2021.
Ulbricht’s latest examination of bitcoin’s price is called “Bitcoin by Ross #9: A Strong Signal for Lower Prices” and the report is calling for a big drop. Ulbricht believes the price could drop back down below the $3,000 range again during this current cycle. “Estimating the extent and duration of wave two is difficult and imprecise,” Ulbricht wrote on April 11. “There is no limit to how low it can go (except $0) because wave one started at $0. And there is no hard limit to how long it could take. However, corrections will often end in the price range of the previous fourth wave of one less degree. That was wave four from back in 2014. Its price range was $175–$1,240. The two previous bear markets (of primary degree) reduced prices by 86% and 94%. An equivalent reduction by wave two would take prices to $2,800 or $1,200. Wave A of two reduced prices by 84%. An equivalent reduction by wave C of two would take prices to $2,200,” Ulbricht stressed. Ulbricht continued by adding:
In terms of duration, if wave C lasts as long as wave A, it will end around June or July 2020. However, waves C of two and wave C of four (not labeled in Figure 1) were considerably larger than the respective A waves. If wave C of two conforms to this pattern, it could drag on into 2021.
Problems With Elliott Wave Theory
Ulbricht’s report also excludes outside market factors like the coronavirus effects on the economy. Additionally, he believes the end of wave two will lead to “extreme pessimism and possibly antagonism toward bitcoin.” He remarked that it will take great “fortitude” to purchase bitcoins in this environment but he thinks “the rewards as wave III takes prices to new highs will be well worth it.” Although, not all traders agree with Ulbricht’s market outlook and some have said the Elliot Wave chart he drew was incorrect. One particular issue noted was that “C waves must have five subwaves of an impulse,” explained the data analysis organization Haejin. BTC pundit, John Carvalho tweeted: “Dread Pirate Roberts is doing bearish TA now” and many of Carvalho’s Twitter followers responded with skepticism.
Elliot Wave theories have always been controversial among traders and many analysts believe that the principle is no different than tarot cards. Benoit Mandelbrot, a mathematician criticized the Elliott Wave theory and claimed the theory is a bunch of “subjective judgments.” Elliott Wave theory’s biggest issue is the fact that observers cannot identify exactly when a wave begins and ends. In fact, there are many studies that state wave theories are not quantified precisely enough and no trader should be dependent on them. Although, some of the most popular cryptocurrency traders today leverage the Elliot Wave system and a good number of traders and market strategists wholeheartedly believe in them. Ulbricht also believes in the theory and the recently published study is the ninth installment to his price prediction series.
What do you think about Ross Ulbricht’s latest bitcoin price analysis? Let us know in the comments below.
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